Aviator calculator: cash-out, odds and a 1,000-round test

How the calculator works

Every figure on this page comes from one line of arithmetic. The provider states a 97% return, so the chance that a round reaches a multiplier m is 0.97 divided by m. The calculator multiplies your stake by the multiplier to get the payout, subtracts the stake to get the profit, and shows that chance beside it.

• You get back = stake × multiplier
• Profit = stake × (multiplier − 1)
• Chance to reach it = 97 ÷ multiplier, as a percentage
• Expected return = payout × chance = 97% of the stake, at every multiplier

The last line is the important one. Move the slider anywhere you like: the payout grows exactly as fast as the chance shrinks, and the product stays at 97%.

Aviator odds: the chance of reaching each multiplier

With a 97% return, the chance that a round reaches a multiplier is 97 divided by that multiplier. A 2.00x cash-out is reached in 48.5% of rounds, not half of them. That missing 1.5% is the house edge, and it is in every row of the table below.

Read the last column twice. Whatever multiplier you pick, 100 rounds at a 100 stake are expected to cost 300 in credits. A low target wins often and pays little. A high target wins rarely and pays a lot. The long-run cost is the same 3% of everything you stake, which is why no choice of cash-out point counts as a winning system.

What changes with the target is the ride. At 1.20x you win about four rounds in five and losses come in ones and twos. At 10x you win about one round in ten and can easily sit through twenty losing rounds first. Pick the ride you can afford, not the one that sounds biggest.

Losing streaks: how long can a bad run last?

Streaks feel like a sign that something is wrong. They are ordinary. The table shows the chance that a given number of rounds in a row all end before your cash-out point.

At a 2x target, five misses in a row happen about 3.6% of the time. That sounds rare, but a session of a few hundred rounds contains many five-round windows, so you should expect to meet one. At a 5x target, ten misses in a row are the normal state of the game, not bad luck.

What the calculator cannot do

It cannot tell you what the next round will be. It describes averages over many rounds, and a single round is either a win or a loss. It also assumes you actually cash out at the multiplier you entered. A late manual tap changes the result, which is one more reason the 1,000-round test uses an auto cash-out.

Run the 1,000-round test several times with the same settings. The line will end in a different place each time, sometimes above zero. That spread is the game's variance. The return column stays close to 97% because the edge does not move, while the path to it does.